Why Endgame Will Make More Than The Rise of Skywalker

Alright! So... the Rise of Skywalker... we need to talk about it.

Let's talk box office projections. I think it will make substantially less than Avengers: Endgame. This is not actually shocking, but if you hadn't seen the films, and were just having them described, it would be.

Star Wars is a 40 year old franchise, the first film was the highest grossing of all time for 5 years, and is ranked as one of the greatest of all time, and is the fifth highest grossing media franchise, with $40 billion in merch. The thing we are comparing it to is 11 years old, and it's most successful film is still behind a Star Wars film, and the MCU merchandising has raked in $5 billion.

So why on Earth will Avengers: Endgame make more than Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker?

Well, there are about three points I'd explain it by:

1. Reception

     Critical Reception

The critical reception for Star Wars is extremely high, except for a dark area from 1999-2008.
The Marvel Cinematic Universe has double the films (+2) Star Wars has. Star Wars has an average of 80.5% for its films, while the MCU has an average of 83.8%. However, when comparing audience scores, the MCU has 82.1% and Star Wars has an average of 74.9%.
Now, I know what you're thinking, "Eh, the Last Jedi had a lot of online haters, so it doesn't count." Well, good. I adjusted the mean audience score without the Last Jedi, and it's still less than the average MCU score, 78.3%
Taking away Solo (A mildly controversial film) as well as the Last Jedi, Star Wars finally has an average audience score higher than the MCU; 88.3% to 82.1%. But that's taking off two of it's films. Two. Out of 10. So yeah, that's a lot. And besides, the best way to avoid a controversial movie is to make a movie that everyone would find uncontroversial.

    B is For Box Office 

Box Office expectations are extremely high; the last Avengers movie made over $2 billion, and Endgame is looking to completely demolish any records. Ever. Marketed as the closing of an epic Marvel era, Endgame will go far.
The Rise of Skywalker's predecessor, the Last Jedi, by contrast made less than Black Panther, again a weird example. A movie based on an obscure comic book character made more than the 8th film in the cultural touchstone of the 70s and 80s? What? That means something went seriously wrong with
the Last Jedi. And indeed it did.

     Critical Reception of the Fans

Let's admit it, Star Wars has been on a serious decline. They're basically perpetuating a memory of something once great (Like France!); the Prequels were kinda bad, the Force Awakens was meh, Rogue One and Solo were forgettable, and the Last Jedi was extremely divisive (Divisive is the word they use when a movie sucked but they're too polite to say that). Fans of the original trilogy have been waiting patiently, waiting for it to be awesome again... and those fans are now in their 50s. That's sad.
The Last Jedi, really, really sucked. Really sucked. Words cannot describe how disappointing it was. It was boring, it was lame, it killed Luke Skywalker, the literal face of a hero for 40 years, after turning him into a villain. Luke didn't go to save his friends. You're telling me the man who was willing to leave his training and let the Jedi die just because the Force told him his friends were in danger straight up abandoned them after setting an evil on the universe? #NotMyLuke.
Meanwhile, the MCU has delivered hit after hit for 11 years with favorite characters.

2. Which do we care more about?

This is pretty simple. Marvel. By far.

In the Rise of Skywalker's trailer, it says, "Every generation has a legend." This one doesn't. Star Wars has lost respect once it was bought by Disney. The only reason these new movies exist is: $$$$. Not continuing a story. Just $$$$$$. And they've made LOTS of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

The Sequel Trilogy's characters are all extremely unrelateable.

Rey is so unrelateable, it's actually unbelievable. The desert scavenger just happens to be good at... everything. One of my favorite lines describing Rey comes from the Last Jedi pitch meeting; "Wow, it's like the classic hero's journey except you cut out all the middle stuff." Plus, Rey is basically Luke Skywalker with no flair. She has a speeder. She wanted to be a rebel. She gets trained by the last of the Jedi and then leaves to save her friends. But she didn't struggle to master her abilities. That makes her extremely unrelateable and her character arc kinds of looks like this:

Poe Dameron, is, again, just bland. He's just another Han Solo-Indiana Jones knock-off, but this time mixed in with Brendan Fraser from the Mummy. He's another pilot. I saw a pilot once; his name was Luke Skywalker.

Finn was likable. He was the straight man in the Force Awakens, and was basically everyone's favorite character for making choices we would have done, running from evil, reacting to explosions, trying to get away because you value your life, and then coming back to save your friend. It was basically what everyone would'be done. However, the Last Jedi ruined that. It gave him more slapstick and weird humor, an hour long side quest that did absolutely nothing, and his really weird romance with Rose Tico.

Rose Tico. Nobody cares. She was with Finn and her sideplot was the reason a lot of hate went into the Last Jedi. It wasn't cool. She basically had only one important role in the film: adding diversity.

Kylo Ren is like a knock-off Darth Vader toy. Sure, they came up with a good design, but the personality or edginess really dies. Kylo Ren looks like he's about to cry. All the time. And that's honestly not very scary. And such a temper! Part of what makes villains like Thanos and Darth Vader terrifying is that they always seem calm and are physically threatening. Kylo Ren is neither.

Nobody connects with the characters.

I swear, if Kylo Ren's scooter does not make it into Episode IX, I'm done.

Marvel, however, has had excellent characters, from the witty, genius, billionaire playboy fan-favorite Tony Stark, a young, witty, smart fan-favorite Spider-Man, or a fan-favorite African king that ultimately looses the moral conflict of his movie. 

Need a movie starring a minority cast? Boom. Black Panther. Need a movie with a girl as a lead? Boom. Captain Marvel. Need a comedy? Boom. Thor: Ragnarok. Need a heist film? Boom, Ant-Man. Need lots of references to the 70s and 80s? Boom, Guardians of the Galaxy. It doesn't matter who you are, the MCU probably has something you really like, which is not the case with Star Wars. 

All of these characters are awesome.

Unlike Rey, I've never been able to master sword-fighting or moving objects with my mind in the course of about 5 minutes. Sure, Chosen Ones are automatically unrelateable, but Luke Skywalker, Ender, or Harry Potter, genuinely likable Chosen Ones, are extremely relateable; 

How, though? 

Answer: Even though they were Chosen Ones, they still were relateable because they went through a lot of crap to become good. Harry had to go through 7 years of school, 6 of which the man who killed his parents attacks him, and Ender unwittingly causes the xenocide of a somewhat peaceful race.

 Luke Skywalker loses his family, twice, has his best friend dunked in carbonite, accidentally kissed his sister, and nearly froze to death. I don't think Rey's been in a single moment of danger. She somehow just makes it through, even though she knows nothing, because she's naturally good. 

Actual test footage of Han Solo being dunked in Carbonite

The marketing is extremely worrying. 

The Rise of Skywalker's trailer only has 27 million views, not even making it into the Top 20 Most Viewed Trailers in 24 Hours, which the Force Awakens and the Last Jedi are both on. This shows that people really aren't connecting with the sequel trilogy, and that no one cares.
Comparatively, the Joker trailer has 47 million views, and Ant-Man and the Wasp has 29 million.
Meanwhile, we have the Endgame trailer, 104 million views and rising. And the movie's already come out.
The hype level is also extremely different. People are worried about what'll happen to the Avengers in Endgame, and the Rise of Skywalker, no body cares about the characters, and none of them will probably die. But in Endgame, the risk is real. It feels real. We care.

3. Franchise Fatigue

Solo showed strains of something called franchise fatigue, which is when no one cares anymore about something and thus stops watching it.
That hasn't happened to the MCU because they keep switching things up. After 11 years, 22 films, we still haven't had enough. Basically any MCU film that comes out, I go and see it. I'm part of a flock; I could not even care, like Captain Marvel, but I saw it anyways to understand the interlocked story that happens.
Star Wars is lesser so. Fans were so sad/angry after the Last Jedi, no one went to see Solo, which came out 5 months later, and was the first Star Wars film to be considered a box office bomb. That's really sad.


There it is. My reasoning. I'm going to go take a nap.