Alright! Today I'm trying to predict the Top 10 Blockbusters of 2020 - A year before they come out. This is an incredibly daunting and probably completely false conclusion, and I'm no Scott Mendelson when it comes to box office. But that won't stop me!
Most of these guesses are based off of marketing and previous box office performances of films in their franchises.
Sonic the Hedgehog - $350 million
Birds of Prey - $450 million
Top Gun: Maverick - $550 million
Raya and the Last Dragon - $610 million
Most of these guesses are based off of marketing and previous box office performances of films in their franchises.Sonic the Hedgehog - $350 million
Birds of Prey - $450 million
Top Gun: Maverick - $550 million
Raya and the Last Dragon - $610 million
Godzilla vs. Kong - $680 million
Recently the live-action remakes of classics have done very well; the Lion King became the 7th highest grossing movie ever somehow, while Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin made a billion.
However, those three films were basically carbon copies of the originals with 30 minutes tacked on.
Mulan is going to be very different, and difference doesn't always equate to success.
Best case scenario, it's a great adaptation, but I do not see it making a billion dollars without audiences absolutely loving it or being more sheeple than usual.
From the creators of Toy Story, the Incredibles, and Coco, reads the trailer. So, the grosses for this will probably be around those. Toy Story made 373 million, which is about $600 million adjusted for inflation, Incredibles made $633 million, and Coco made $807.
That's a pretty solid list of hits.
8. the Eternals
The Eternals is the next MCU film that introduces a completely new character to audiences, like Ant-Man, Guardians, Doctor Strange, Captain Marvel, and Black Panther. Those films grossed $519, $772, $677 million, and $1 billion each for the last two.
Original films seem to be in the $600-$700 million range, unless they are the film immediately before an Avengers flick and thus were heavily affected by that marketing, like Black Panther and Captain Marvel.
My estimate, $780 million, seems about right, considering the momentum of the MCU. But several factors could contribute to this. If the film is actually really good like Black Panther, why wouldn't it make a billion? But if it's more like Ant-Man, then yeah. This seems about right.
Eternals doesn't face a lot in competition. It faces several minor PG threats like Clifford, but two weeks later, Godzilla vs. Kong is released, which would presumably take a dent out of the film.
Soul is being marketed as being brought to you by the studio that made Coco, Up, and Inside Out. The respective box office grosses for those films are $807, $735, and $857 million.
Since they're marketing Soul like a cousin to those films, we can probably expect about the same reviews and box office.
Tenet is the new Christopher Nolan movie. It is described as an "Action thriller." Christopher Nolan is one of the only directors to take original ideas and turn them into giant blockbusters. His past action thrillers, the Dark Knight, the Dark Knight Rises, and Inception, made $1 billion, a billion, and $828 million. Since it doesn't have the brand name of Batman, I would think Inception numbers, if it is as good as the other films, and the A-List cast certainly doesn't hurt.
It's also set to open on July 17th. The only movie that could really pose a threat to it is Morbius, and assuming that it (Morbius) is R, it's no biggie.
5. Venom 2
Venom, somehow, made $856 million. Somehow. Bad reviews did not hurt it. And since superhero movies seem to be the only movies where the sequels make more than the original, I would estimate about $900 million, $1 billion if it gets super lucky with a mix of no competition and better reviews.
In fact, it shouldn't have any competition until Halloween Kills two weeks later, but if it's PG-13, then it's biggest competition is the Eternals, nearly a month later.
Black Widow is the MCU prequel film for Natasha Romanoff, may you rest in peace. But several people, myself included, are wondering why release the film now, after she's dead? Well, I assume Kevin Feige has a plan, and that plan is probably amazing, the word of mouth would spread, and a lot of people would go see it.
However, the film may have problems with China due to Natasha's KGB past. In Iron Man 2, they didn't translate "Russian" in the subtitles and muffled the audio. So, an entire movie about a Russian, talking about her Russian past and dealing with new Russian threats?
Probably not helpful. I'm sure they'll find the balance to get it into China, though.
For the actual box office gross, I'm thinking Captain Marvel and Wonder Woman, which made a billion and $821 million, respectively.
If Black Widow has good reviews and incredible word of mouth, I could see it making a billion dollars, but that's not a definite.
Way back in 2017, Wonder Woman made $821 million. That's a lot of money. But, it was also the first female-led superhero movie, a WWI movie, and had AMAZING critical reviews. Assuming that the sequel has average sequel reviews (A 10% drop on Rotten Tomatoes), then it will do fine.
It will probably be on par with the first one, but I see this as making a billion dollars, after the success of Aquaman and Joker, I think audiences really think DC movies are back on track and would go see it.
2. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Disgrace. Disgrace disgrace disgrace. Minions: The Rise of Gru will most likely make a billion dollars. But Minions did, and so did Despicable M3, so I think they have it in the bag.
Even with negative reviews, I think that this will do very, very well.
And combined with a lack of kid friendly competition until Jungle Cruise three weeks later, it's got it in the bag.
1. Fast and Furious 9
The Fast and Furious franchise, somehow, has made a lot of money.
Well, actually, they just took the cars and babes on cars formula from Transformers and put the Rock in it.
But the past two F&F films (Not counting Hobbs & Shaw) have each made $1 billion. The only difference is that this time the film will not have the Rock in it, but I don't think it will mess it up to bad, as they are introducing John Cena, who is basically the Rock in 2009. Just starting up.
But aside from John Cena appeal, F&F 7 and 8 made 1.5 and 1.2 billion dollars. So I predict somewhere inbetween.
Those are my predictions. I have spoken. I can't wait to do another post in a year and see how wrong I was. Or right. You never know.
10. Mulan
Estimated gross: $700 million - $1 billion
Recently the live-action remakes of classics have done very well; the Lion King became the 7th highest grossing movie ever somehow, while Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin made a billion.
However, those three films were basically carbon copies of the originals with 30 minutes tacked on.
Mulan is going to be very different, and difference doesn't always equate to success.
Best case scenario, it's a great adaptation, but I do not see it making a billion dollars without audiences absolutely loving it or being more sheeple than usual.
9. Onward
Estimated gross: $750 million
From the creators of Toy Story, the Incredibles, and Coco, reads the trailer. So, the grosses for this will probably be around those. Toy Story made 373 million, which is about $600 million adjusted for inflation, Incredibles made $633 million, and Coco made $807.
That's a pretty solid list of hits.
8. the Eternals
Estimated gross: $780 million - $1 billion
The Eternals is the next MCU film that introduces a completely new character to audiences, like Ant-Man, Guardians, Doctor Strange, Captain Marvel, and Black Panther. Those films grossed $519, $772, $677 million, and $1 billion each for the last two.
Original films seem to be in the $600-$700 million range, unless they are the film immediately before an Avengers flick and thus were heavily affected by that marketing, like Black Panther and Captain Marvel.
My estimate, $780 million, seems about right, considering the momentum of the MCU. But several factors could contribute to this. If the film is actually really good like Black Panther, why wouldn't it make a billion? But if it's more like Ant-Man, then yeah. This seems about right.
Eternals doesn't face a lot in competition. It faces several minor PG threats like Clifford, but two weeks later, Godzilla vs. Kong is released, which would presumably take a dent out of the film.
7. Soul
Estimated Gross: $800 million
Soul is being marketed as being brought to you by the studio that made Coco, Up, and Inside Out. The respective box office grosses for those films are $807, $735, and $857 million.
Since they're marketing Soul like a cousin to those films, we can probably expect about the same reviews and box office.
6. Tenet
Estimated gross: $830 million
Tenet is the new Christopher Nolan movie. It is described as an "Action thriller." Christopher Nolan is one of the only directors to take original ideas and turn them into giant blockbusters. His past action thrillers, the Dark Knight, the Dark Knight Rises, and Inception, made $1 billion, a billion, and $828 million. Since it doesn't have the brand name of Batman, I would think Inception numbers, if it is as good as the other films, and the A-List cast certainly doesn't hurt.
It's also set to open on July 17th. The only movie that could really pose a threat to it is Morbius, and assuming that it (Morbius) is R, it's no biggie.
5. Venom 2
Estimated gross: $900 million - $1 billion
Venom, somehow, made $856 million. Somehow. Bad reviews did not hurt it. And since superhero movies seem to be the only movies where the sequels make more than the original, I would estimate about $900 million, $1 billion if it gets super lucky with a mix of no competition and better reviews.In fact, it shouldn't have any competition until Halloween Kills two weeks later, but if it's PG-13, then it's biggest competition is the Eternals, nearly a month later.
4. Black Widow
Estimated gross: $950 million - $1 billion
Black Widow is the MCU prequel film for Natasha Romanoff, may you rest in peace. But several people, myself included, are wondering why release the film now, after she's dead? Well, I assume Kevin Feige has a plan, and that plan is probably amazing, the word of mouth would spread, and a lot of people would go see it.
However, the film may have problems with China due to Natasha's KGB past. In Iron Man 2, they didn't translate "Russian" in the subtitles and muffled the audio. So, an entire movie about a Russian, talking about her Russian past and dealing with new Russian threats?
Probably not helpful. I'm sure they'll find the balance to get it into China, though.
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| China |
For the actual box office gross, I'm thinking Captain Marvel and Wonder Woman, which made a billion and $821 million, respectively.
If Black Widow has good reviews and incredible word of mouth, I could see it making a billion dollars, but that's not a definite.
3. Wonder Woman 1984
Estimated gross: $1.50 billion
Way back in 2017, Wonder Woman made $821 million. That's a lot of money. But, it was also the first female-led superhero movie, a WWI movie, and had AMAZING critical reviews. Assuming that the sequel has average sequel reviews (A 10% drop on Rotten Tomatoes), then it will do fine.
It will probably be on par with the first one, but I see this as making a billion dollars, after the success of Aquaman and Joker, I think audiences really think DC movies are back on track and would go see it.
2. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Estimated gross: $1.150 billion
Disgrace. Disgrace disgrace disgrace. Minions: The Rise of Gru will most likely make a billion dollars. But Minions did, and so did Despicable M3, so I think they have it in the bag.Even with negative reviews, I think that this will do very, very well.
And combined with a lack of kid friendly competition until Jungle Cruise three weeks later, it's got it in the bag.
1. Fast and Furious 9
Estimated gross: $1.3 billion
The Fast and Furious franchise, somehow, has made a lot of money.
Well, actually, they just took the cars and babes on cars formula from Transformers and put the Rock in it.But the past two F&F films (Not counting Hobbs & Shaw) have each made $1 billion. The only difference is that this time the film will not have the Rock in it, but I don't think it will mess it up to bad, as they are introducing John Cena, who is basically the Rock in 2009. Just starting up.
But aside from John Cena appeal, F&F 7 and 8 made 1.5 and 1.2 billion dollars. So I predict somewhere inbetween.
Those are my predictions. I have spoken. I can't wait to do another post in a year and see how wrong I was. Or right. You never know.
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