Analyzation and Predictions of the 2020 Oscars Noms

Alright! Today I am looking at the Oscar Noms, and predicting who will win. Last year, I did a crap ton of research and typed it up here, and about 8 months ago I tried to predict who would win here, of which I got a surprising amount right.

But, here's a summary of the six things that makes a Best Picture:

1. Be R-Rated
2. Make enough money to be known but not enough as to no one saw it (-$150 million)
3. Genre - Be a drama, war, epic, period piece, or thriller
4. Have a diverse cast - This will probably get you nominated, but you won't win. Only two films starring African Americans have ever won - 12 Years A Slave and Moonlight
5. Have a nom for Best Director
6. Avoid controversy

But now I would like to replace #6 with this: Don't be a Netflix Original, because Roma was the most Oscar-iest Oscar film to ever be nominated to Oscar an Oscar, it was R-Rated, won Best Director, and starred a minority.

So let's look at this year's nominations:

Ford v Ferrari

Ford v Ferrari made a good amount of money ($217 million), had great acting (Christian Bale was robbed of a nomination here), great visual effects, and was a great story. However, it is PG-13. So it only checks the genre, money, and streaming categories.
So it's chances are not great.

Jojo Rabbit

Jojo Rabbit was a comedy. A PG-13 comedy, received decent amounts of press, got a nomination for Best Supporting Actress, but I do not think it will win. One, it is a comedy, and only one comedy has ever won (Birdman), and two, it is PG-13. It also had a bit of controversy, as all films with Naziis do, about the depiction of Naziis, a la Life is Beautiful.

Little Women

Little Women was critically acclaimed, everyone liked it, and it made a decent amount of money at the box office. However, it didn't, unjustly, receive a nomination for Best Director. Only five women have been nominated for Best Director, and only one has won. Greta Gerwig, who directed Little Women, was actually nominated for the award in 2017 for Lady Bird.
The film is also not even rated PG-13. It's PG. The last PG movie to win Best Picture was in 1989, Driving Miss Daisy, so it would be a 30 year gap.

Joker

On one hand, Joker is a superhero flick. On the other, it's more of a character study about a mentally disabled person who kills people, which is something that the Oscars would eat up. I do find it insulting that just because they take the superhero formula and turn it all dark and artsy it's suddenly Oscar worthy. That's just a stupid gimmick and I hate it. The movie itself looks pretty lit.
And, it made a billion dollars, so it does seem to be popular. However, the hate in the movie industry against superhero movies could kill Joker's chances.
If none of the Dark Knight Trilogy were nominated for Best Picture, then I don't see why Joker should win.

Marriage Story

Marriage Story is interesting. It's a drama about a couple going through a divorce, and has nominations for Best Actor and Actress. But it is also on Netflix, which will not help it. I don't think it's going to win anything it's nominated for. 

Irishman

The Irishman is prime Oscar bait. If it was released in theaters, my money would be on it. It has a nom for Best Visual Effects, Best Director for Martin Scorsese, and two noms for Best Supporting Actor. However, it is a Netflix original, and there is definitely some discrimination against streaming in the film industry (Because it's killing cinemas).
Netflix payed $159 million to get Best Picture and they got it, but it won't win because it's a Netflix original. That's what you get.

Once Upon A Time in... Hollywood

Quentin Tarantino has been nominated for Best Director three times. He hasn't won it yet. Unfortunate. And, this is his first film to be nominated for Best Picture. It has nominations for Best Actor as well as Best Supporting Actor, so good on them.
But, Quentin Tarantino doesn't really make "Oscar" films. His controversial uses of extraordinary violence, language, and racial slurs in his films, including Once Upon A Time in... Hollywood, make his films less Oscar-y and more what a casual movie goer would see. And they did. Once Upon A Time in... Hollywood made something around $373 million.

Parasite

Parasite is the 12th Foreign film to be nominated for Best Picture, and none of them have won. It's made $160 million so far, but only $30 million came from the U.S.A. And it only started getting ads as soon as it was nominated for Best Picture, even though it came out in May. It is R-Rated, and it was a thriller, with an undercurrent theme of the social friction between classes today. It was also the first Korean film to win the Palme d'Or, and did so with a unanimous vote.
The things going against it is that it's a foreign film, and as such, was not seen by a lot of Americans, who run the Oscars, but it's gotten a load of critical acclaim, great press, and it really seems like it's down to this movie and the next one.

1917

Ah. 1917. 1917's at this place where it's one of the few films of 2019 to be original and still break $200 million, and also at the point where it doesn't seem like an Oscar film. It's about WWI. It's a raw, soul moving flick, and made audiences happy everywhere. This is definitely my own bias getting in the way, but I do think this is the best film here.
But, let's keep in mind that factually, it's an R-Rated WWI Epic, has made enough money to be known, made enough press to be interesting, and has been critically acclaimed for looking like one shot.
And, the one shot gimmick could be enough to get it Best Picture, as it is technically innovating while also being fresh and original, and the fact that it's got a great story and action scenes to go along with it are a bonus.

Personally, I am rooting for 1917. It's great, and if you haven't seen it, you should. It's great.